Even with their restrictions, the Crucial Statistics offers the most useful readily available study with which to help you guess the fresh new national separation and divorce price inside 1990. S. Census Bureau staff demonstrates relationship incidents study regarding the ACS and You.S. Vital Statistics (for instance the DRA try) was comparable ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Rates for lots more recent years are not you can just like the federal regulators discontinued the newest distinct essential analytics into marriage ceremonies and you may divorces from the condition height within the 1996.
With the intention that our answers are sturdy, i did a supplemental studies of the restricting the newest 2010 ACS research to simply the newest DRA shot says where many years from the lifetime of splitting up are reported when you look at the 1990. The outcome from this extra investigation are nearly same as the individuals in line with the entire nation, suggesting that boost in the newest splitting up speed is not an enthusiastic artifact off as well as ACS data away from all the says.
Analytic Method
Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p
R esults
Once the shown when you look at the Shape 1, the new divorce proceedings speed have doubled just like the 1990, ascending regarding cuatro.nine to 10.step 1 divorced people for each step one,000 hitched people. It trend belies all round trend regarding You.S. separation and divorce rate during this time, that has been essentially flat within 19.0 in 1990 and you can 17.nine this present year (impact perhaps not shown). The doubling of speed from splitting up certainly one of middle-old and you may older adults means a substantial boost in brand new amount of people aged fifty and you will elderly just who experience split up. In the 1990, approximately 206,007 anybody old 50 and elderly got separated, while in 2010 regarding 643,152 got divorced. So you can contextualize this development, consider you to fewer than 1 in ten persons just who divorced into the 1990 is actually aged 50 and you can older weighed against over step 1 from inside the cuatro today (influence perhaps not revealed). Additionally, of course, if new divorce case rate remains constant along side second two decades-a conventional expectation based on the previous development-what amount of individuals old fifty and you can elderly who would feel divorce or separation into the 2030 would rise by 1/3rd so you can over 828,380 (authors’ calculation based on ages-certain projected inhabitants types inside 2030 [ You.S. Census Agency, 2004]), highlighting the newest increasing growth in the brand new old adult population that will exist across the 2nd 20 years.
